Demography as a Spatial Social Science

Many social scientists have taken note of the re-emerging interest in issues concerning social processes embedded within a spatial context. While some argue that this awakening is refreshing and new and, in fact, long overdue, I demonstrate that spatially focused demographic theories and research agendas clearly predate contemporary interest in these topics. I assert that recent methodological advancements have merely encouraged and brought refinement to the expanding body of spatially oriented population research – research strongly rooted in demographic tradition and practice. Indeed, I make the claim that, until roughly the mid-20 century, virtually all demography in the United States (and elsewhere, but not specifically examined here) was spatial demography. (I define spatial demography as the formal demographic study of areal aggregates, i.e., of demographic attributes aggregated to some level within a geographic hierarchy.) While some may find the claim overstated, and argue specific exceptions, I develop my theme, in part, through historical narrative. I posit that until around 1950 almost all demographic analysis involved data taken from areal units. Then, shortly after mid-century, a paradigm shift occurred, and the scientific study of population quickly came to be dominated by attention to the individual as the agent of demographic action. Traditional spatial (or macro-level) demography gave way to micro-demography, and, I argue, most demographers simply abandoned the data and approach of spatial demography. This assertion notwithstanding, I then proceed to show how the tradition of spatial demography actually did persist in small corners of our discipline during the latter half of the 20 century – despite the ascendancy of the micro-demography paradigm – through the contributions primarily of rural demographers and of others working in the new sub-field which appropriated the appellative “applied” demography. In closing the paper I include a brief but necessary discussion of the recent awakening that has come to spatial demographers from developments in other disciplines – principally from geography, regional science and spatial econometrics. Attributes of spatially referenced data generally violate at least one of the assumptions underlying the standard regression model, which necessitates both caution regarding these violations and attention to methods designed to correct for them. These emerging methods are the topics of a large and rapidly expanding literature. I also include mention of the important recent role played by methods of multilevel modeling (hierarchical linear modeling) in bridging the 50-year-old split between micro-level and macrolevel demography by introducing techniques which simultaneously consider individual (family or household) variation in demographic attributes or behavior as well as the broader geographic contexts in which individual demographic action occurs.